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Re: Call for comments on tubes vs. transistors

" no one knows how long transistors last."

I had a long discussion on a thread about this very subject with John Curl some time ago, maybe a year or so. He cited a very long equation the military uses to calculated MTBF. I plugged in reasonable numbers and came up with answers in the hundreds of years. Of course, there could be significant order of magnitude errors one way or the other depending on many factors. Ultimately the transistor won't fail until the crystal breaks down sufficiently. I don't know if the thermal diffusion model is accurate over such a long timespan. It could be more like having a testube of hydrogen and oxygen. Without a spark, nothing could happen for thousands of years. One spark and it's over in an instant.


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