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Re: I guess I will have to quit

Here goes one more attempt to get a meeting of minds here:

First off you listed all six possibilities that I listed in a slightly different format. (I assume that in the 2nd set you meant to write loseR rather than winR). This is where R represents the "Monty reveal." So far we are on the same page.

No need to go further than these 6 possibilites.

I do not understand what your next set is supposed to represent, especially the "loseR3 loseR3" that you say I did not account for. Please explain what these 3 lines are meant to represent.

What I will tell you is that if you wish to write a short computer program and actually run a simulation you will not find the 1/6 chance the winning door is revealed, you will find this chance is 1 out of 3- because there are 2 separate doors to which this 1 out of 6 chance can apply.

Let me ask a simplified question about counting possibilities. Suppose you flip a fair coin 10 times, each time writing down heads or tails. At the end of the 10 flips, what are the odds that you have exactly 2 heads and 8 tails written down?

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