In Reply to: A Real Simple Math Quiz - Let's Make a Deal posted by Don T on October 19, 2006 at 21:29:27:
that probability has nothing to do with the next actual outcome.
If you can pay the game 1000 times, your total win will be higher if you always switch, but if you can play it only once, it does not matter.
To recommend combinatorics for a single event is like suggesting to take a bomb to an airplane tip because the probability of having a bomb on the airplane you travel is very small, but having two is nil :)
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Follow Ups
- What you forget is ... - csero 11:55:58 10/21/06 (1)
- this is just silly - tunenut 19:24:18 10/21/06 (0)